What you need to know about COP 29

The 29th Conference of Parties (COP29) opens today in Baku, Azerbaijan, marking another crucial chapter in global climate negotiations. The 12-day conference follows last year’s significant Dubai meeting, where nations achieved two major breakthroughs: establishing a fund for climate-vulnerable countries and reaching the first international agreement to address fossil fuels as the primary driver of climate change.

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While these resolutions were intended to accelerate emissions reduction and combat spreading climate impacts, meaningful implementation remains challenging after just one year. The urgency is heightened as climate change effects intensify, now affecting even regions previously considered insulated from such impacts.

At the heart of COP29 lies the critical issue of climate finance. The United Nations emphasizes that governments must increase their financial commitments to address the widening adaptation gap between Global North and South countries. This disparity is particularly stark as Global South nations, despite contributing minimally to greenhouse gas emissions, bear the brunt of climate catastrophes. Their situation is further complicated by mounting debt stress from high-interest loans and inflation, leaving them with limited resources to address climate challenges.

A key focus will be expanding the loss and damage fund established in Dubai. While progress has been made in defining its operational framework, the current US$700 million commitment falls significantly short of projected needs, estimated at US$580 billion by 2030. The conference will also tackle adaptation finance and attempt to clarify rules around carbon markets, particularly regarding nations’ use of carbon trading to meet Paris Agreement targets.

A key focus will be expanding the loss and damage fund established in Dubai. While progress has been made in defining its operational framework, the current US$700 million commitment falls significantly short of projected needs, estimated at US$580 billion by 2030. The conference will also tackle adaptation finance and attempt to clarify rules around carbon markets, particularly regarding nations’ use of carbon trading to meet Paris Agreement targets.

The geopolitical context adds another layer of complexity to the negotiations. Donald Trump’s re-election as U.S. President casts uncertainty over future American cooperation on climate initiatives, given his previous withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and skepticism toward climate change. Additionally, ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine risk diverting international attention and complicating cooperation between key players, especially Russia and China.

Looking ahead, countries face a February 2025 deadline to submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. Current commitments and policies put the world on track for a 2.6-3.1°C temperature rise by 2100, far exceeding the crucial 1.5°C target. The Baku presidency has proposed several initiatives, including a Global Energy Storage and Grids Pledge, a Hydrogen Declaration, and measures to reduce methane emissions from organic waste.

The conference must also address the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), intended to replace the previous $100 billion annual commitment from 2025 onwards. Expert analysis suggests developing countries need approximately $1 trillion annually by 2025, scaling to $2.4 trillion by 2030. Contentious issues include determining contributor and recipient criteria, and avoiding excessive debt financing for vulnerable nations already struggling with climate-related financial burdens.

The success of COP29 will largely depend on bridging the gap between developed and developing nations’ expectations regarding climate finance and emission reduction commitments. Developing countries remain hesitant to commit to more ambitious targets without secured financial support, while the United States and EU resist explicit conditioning of commitments on financial assistance. These tensions underscore the complex challenge of achieving meaningful progress in global climate action while ensuring equitable distribution of responsibilities and resources.

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