What a Trump victory means for Africa

In the immediate aftermath of what is described as Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, African leaders have moved quickly to establish connections with the incoming administration. Leaders including Kenya’s William Ruto, Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed, Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu, and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa reportedly extended their congratulations to Trump.

[ays_block_subscribe id=’1′]

Many experts suggest that Trump’s approach to foreign policy could significantly impact Africa-US relations. They anticipate a shift toward more transactional relationships and away from multilateral partnerships, potentially affecting aid, trade, and climate agreements. According to Christopher Isike, professor of African studies and international relations at the University of Pretoria, Trump’s dealings are primarily based on what he can obtain in return.

Trump’s proposed universal tariff system of 10-20% on foreign-made goods represents a significant shift in US-Africa trade relations. This policy would directly impact African exporters’ ability to compete in the US market, potentially reducing their market share and export revenues. The most immediate concern centers on the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which currently facilitates approximately $10 billion in annual trade benefits. The program’s uncertain future under Trump creates significant anxiety among African economies that have structured their US export strategies around AGOA’s preferential access.

Subsequently, the Biden administration’s $55 billion pledge to African nations faces potential reconsideration under Trump’s leadership. Similarly, the Development Finance Corporation’s $10 billion investment portfolio in Africa might undergo substantial review. This creates uncertainty for ongoing development projects and future investments. Trump’s preference for transactional relationships suggests that future development funding might be more closely tied to specific US interests rather than broader development goals.

While the impact varies by country, some economies appear more resilient than others. South Africa, for instance, might see a relatively modest GDP impact (estimated at 0.06%) from AGOA’s potential dissolution, primarily because many of its US exports don’t rely on AGOA benefits. However, countries more dependent on AGOA could face more significant challenges. The decline in AGOA-enabled exports from a peak of $66 billion to current levels of $10 billion already indicates a shifting trade landscape that could be further complicated by Trump’s policies.

African nations are likely to accelerate their economic diversification strategies in response to US policy uncertainty. China’s current trade volume with Africa (three times that of the US in purchases and six times in sales) positions it as an increasingly important partner. The potential scaling back of US engagement could prompt African nations to strengthen ties with alternative partners including Russia, Turkey, and others, fundamentally reshaping the continent’s trade relationships.

The future of Trump-era initiatives like Prosper Africa, which facilitated 2,500 deals worth $120 billion across 49 African nations, remains uncertain. While these programs demonstrated success in promoting US-Africa business ties, they might be repurposed or modified to align with Trump’s “America First” approach. The continuation of such programs could depend on their perceived direct benefit to US interests rather than their development impact.

The potential shift from multilateral to bilateral agreements could fundamentally alter how African nations engage with the US economically. Countries might need to negotiate individual trade agreements, potentially creating a more complex and fragmented trade landscape. This could advantage larger economies with more negotiating leverage while potentially depriving smaller African economies.

[/ays_block_subscribe]