Kenya Lands Dangote’s Biggest Investment Outside Nigeria. What Could It Mean for East Africa’s Energy Future?

Kenya has been selected as the location for Dangote Group’s planned 700,000 barrel per day oil refinery, ending months of speculation over whether the mega project would be built in Kenya or Tanzania. The refinery will be based in Lamu, off Kenya’s coast, and is expected to take about 3 years to build. The facility will be similar in scale to Dangote’s giant refinery in Nigeria and would become one of the biggest energy investments in East Africa.

The project is already moving beyond the announcement stage. The site has been selected, soil tests are under way, and design and engineering work has started. The refinery is expected to be financed through a mix of internal cash flow, bonds and proceeds from a planned initial public offering.

The investment would mark Dangote Group’s biggest refining project outside Nigeria and could reshape East Africa’s fuel market. The region remains heavily dependent on imported refined petroleum products, even as fuel demand continues to grow across Kenya and neighbouring economies. Tanzania had also been considered for the project, especially the port city of Tanga. However, Kenya was selected after Dangote weighed the project’s commercial needs, logistics, infrastructure and access to the wider East African market.

For Kenya, the project could be significant if completed. A refinery of that scale would reduce reliance on imported refined fuel, support regional supply, create direct and indirect jobs, and strengthen the country’s position as a petroleum-processing hub for East Africa.

The plan follows the commissioning of Dangote’s 650,000 barrel per day Lagos refinery in 2024, now Africa’s largest. The Nigerian facility has already changed the country’s fuel market by reducing dependence on imports and expanding exports of refined products such as aviation fuel.
If completed, the Lamu project could give Kenya a bigger role in East Africa’s fuel supply chain.